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Special Issues and Symposia in Journals, Edited
Forthcoming and "Early View" Publications
Articles and Chapters by Decade: 1980s, 1990s2000s, and 2010s


Click titles for links to publisher websites.

The Outbreak of the First World War: Structure, Politics, and Decision-Making. Cambridge,   UK: Cambridge University Press, 2014. [Edited with John A. Vasquez]

The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, 2nd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013. [Edited with Leonie Huddy and David O. Sears]

The Arc of War: Origins, Escalation and Transformation. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2011. [with William R. Thompson]  

Causes of War. Chichester, UK: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010. [with William R. Thompson]

Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals. New York: Routledge, 2007. [edited with Gary Goertz]

Systems, Stability, and Statecraft: Essays on The International History of Modern Europe, by Paul W. Schroeder. Edited by David Wetzel, Robert Jervis, and Jack S. Levy. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004. 

War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495-1975. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1983.

Special Issues and Symposia in Journals, Edited

50th Anniversary Special Issue of Journal of Peace Research 51, 2 (March 2014). [edited with Halvard Buhaug]

"Commentary on Preventive War." International Interactions 37, 1 (March 2011): 139-327.

"Symposium" on Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Qualitative Methods, 4, 1 (Spring 2006): 34-48.

"Decision Theory." A special issue of Synthese, 135, 2 (May 2003). [edited with Raymond Dacey]

Forthcoming and "Early View" Publications

"Shifting Power, Preventive Logic, and the Response of the Target: Germany, Russia, and the First World War," Journal of Strategic Studies, online 29 Nov 2016, DOI:10.1080/01402390.2016.1242421 [with William Mulligan]

"Clausewitz and people's war." Journal of Strategic Studies, in press.

"Introduction" to H-Diplo Roundtable on Fred Chernoff's Explanation and Progress in Security Studies: Bridging Theoretical Divides in International Relations.

Selected Articles and Chapters, 2010s

Click on the titles below for PDF copies or links; please contact me if you cannot access a publication.

"Information, Commitment, and the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905." Foreign Policy Analysis 12, 4 (October 2016): 489-511.

Review of Jennifer Siegel, For Peace and Money: French and British Finance in the Service of Tsars and Commissars (Oxford University Press, 2015). H-Diplo 18, 7 (24 October 2016), 8-13.

"Backing Out or Backing In? Commitments and Consistency in Audience Costs Theory." American Journal of Political Science 59, 4 (October 2015): 988-1001. [with Michael K. McKoy, Paul Poast, and Geoffrey P. R. Wallace]

"Counterfactuals, Causal Inference, and Historical Analysis." Security Studies 24, 3 (September 2015): 378-402.

"Introduction" to H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable on Keren Yarhi-Milo's Knowing The Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence Organizations, and Assessments of Intentions in International Relations. 7, 19 (2015): 2-12 of pp. 1-40.

"Everyone's Favored Year for War-or Not?'" International Security 39, 4 (Spring 2015): 208-17. ["Correspondence" with Jack Snyder].

"Opposition Politics and International Crises: A Formal Model." International Studies Quarterly 58, 4 (December 2014): 741-51 [with Patrick Shea and Terence K. Teo]

"Introduction: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Causes of the First World War." [with John A. Vasquez]. In Levy and Vasquez, eds., The Outbreak of the First World War: Structure, Politics, and Decision-Making. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2014. pp. 3-29.

"The Sources Preventive Logic in German Decision-making in 1914." In Levy and Vasquez, eds., The Outbreak of the First World War: Structure, Politics, and Decision-Making. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2014. pp. 139-66.

"Beginning the Great War." A Virtual Roundtable with William Mulligan, Thomas Otte, and John C. G. Röhl. Cambridge University Press blog, 2 July 2014.

"50 Years of Peace Research: An Introduction to the Journal of Peace Research Anniversary Special Issue" Journal of Peace Research 51, 2 (March 2014): 139:44. [with Halvard Buhaug and Henrik Urdal]

"Preemptive and Preventive War." In Joel Krieger, ed., The Oxford Companion to International Relations. New York: Oxford University Press, 2014. Vol. 2, pp 201-207.

"International War." In Masamichi Sasaki, Jack A. Goldstone, Ekkart Zimmermann, and Stephen K. Sanderson, eds., Concise Encyclopedia of Comparative Sociology. Leiden, the Netherlands: Brill, 2014. Pp. 448-55. 

"The Decline of War" International Studies Review  15, 3 (September 2013): 411-19. [with William R. Thompson]. In "The Forum: The Decline of War," with Steven Pinker and Bradley A. Thayer, edited by Nils Petter Gleditsch, Pp. 396-419.

 Review of Zara Steiner, The Triumph of the Dark: European International History, 1933-1939. H-Diplo XV, 4 (27 September 2013), 50-60.

"Introduction: Theoretical Foundations of Political Psychology." [with Leonie Huddy and David O. Sears].In Huddy, Sears, and Levy, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, 2nd ed.  Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013. Pp. 1-19. 

"Psychology and Foreign Policy Decision-Making." In Leonie Huddy, David O. Sears, and Jack S. Levy, eds.,  The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology,
2nd ed
. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013. Pp. 301-33. 

"Has Violence Declined in World Politics?" A Discussion of Joshua S. Goldstein's Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide. Perspectives on Politics 11, 2 (2013): 566—77. [with Page Fortna and John Mearsheimer]

"Interstate War and Peace." In Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations II. London: Sage, 2013. Pp. 581-606.

"Coercive Threats, Audience Costs, and Case Studies." Security Studies 21, 3 (September 2012): 383-90.

"British Grand Strategy and the Rise of Germany, 1933-1936." [with Norrin M. Ripsman]. In Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, Norrin M. Ripsman, and Steven E. Lobell, eds., The Challenge of Grand Strategy: The Great Powers and the Broken Balance between the World Wars. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012. Pp. 171-92.. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012. Pp. 171-92.

"Introduction" to H-Diplo/ISSF roundtable on Fixing the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligence, by Joshua Rovner. III, 17 (2012), 2-8

 "The 'Paths to War' Concept." In John A. Vasquez, ed., What Do We Know about War? 2nd ed. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield, 2012. Pp. 281-90.

"Sea Powers, Continental Powers, and Balancing Theory."  International Security, 36, 2 (Fall 2011): 190-202. [with William R. Thompson, Correspondence with David W. Blagden]

"Domestic Politics and Commercial Rivalry: Explaining the War of Jenkins' Ear, 1739-1748." European Journal of International Relations 17,2 (June 2011): 209-32. [with Patricia T. Young]

"The Initiation and Spread of the First World War: Interdependent Decisions." Foreign Policy Analysis, 7, 2 (April 2011): 183-88.

"Theories and Causes of War." In Christopher Coyne and Rachel L. Mathers, eds., The Handbook on the Political Economy of War. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2011. Pp. 13-33.

"Preventive War: Concept and Propositions." International Interactions 37, 1 (March 2011): 87-96.

"Balancing on Land and at Sea: Do States Ally Against the Leading Global Power?" International Security, 35, 1 (Summer 2010): 7-43. [with William R. Thompson]

Selected Articles and Publications, 2000s

"Conscious Action and Intelligence Failure." Political Science Quarterly, 124, 3 (Fall 2009): 461-88. [with Uri Bar-Joseph]

"Debating British Decisionmaking toward Nazi Germany in the 1930s." International Security, 34, 1 (Summer 2009): 173-98. [with Norrin M. Ripsman, correspondence with Evan Resnick and Andrew Barros & Talbot Imlay]

"Case Studies and Conflict Resolution." In Jacob Bercovitch, Victor Kremenyuk, and I. William Zartman, eds., Handbook of Conflict Resolution. London: Sage, 2009. Pp. 72-85.

"Wishful Thinking or Buying Time? The Logic of British Appeasement in the 1930s." International Security, 33, 2 (Fall 2008): 148-81.   [with Norrin M. Ripsman]

"Counterfactuals and Case Studies." In Janet Box-Steffensmeier, Henry Brady, and David Collier, eds., in Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. New York: Oxford University Press, 2008. Pp. 627-44.

"Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China." In Robert S. Ross and Zhu Feng, eds., China's Ascent:  Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 2008. Pp. 11-33. Also published in China by Shanghai People's Press, 2008.

"Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy: The Contributions of Alexander George." Political Psychology, 29, 4 (August 2008): 537-52. 

"Preventive War and Democratic Politics." International Studies Quarterly, 52, 1 (March 2008): 1-24. (Presidential address, International Studies Association)

"Case Studies: Types, Designs, and Logics of Inference." Conflict Management and Peace Science, 25, 1 (Spring 2008): 1-18. (Presidential address, Peace Science Society [International])

"Theory, Evidence, and Politics in the Evolution of Research Programs." In Richard Ned Lebow and Mark Lichbach, eds., Theory and Evidence in Comparative Politics and International Relations. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007. Pp. 177-97. 

"Causal Explanation, Necessary Conditions, and Case Studies." In Gary Goertz and Jack S. Levy, eds., Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals. New York: Routledge, 2007. Pp. 9-45. [with Gary Goertz] 

"Time Horizons, Discounting, and Intertemporal Choice." Journal of Conflict Resolution, 51, 2 (April 2007): 199-226. [with Philip Streich] 

"The Preventive War that Never Happened: Britain, France, and the Rise of Germany in the 1930s." Security Studies, 16, 1 (January-March 2007): 32-67. [with Norrin M. Ripsman] 

"Qualitative Methods and Cross-Method Dialogue in Political Science." Comparative Political Studies, 40, 2 (February 2007): 196-214. 

"Preventive War and the Bush Doctrine: Theoretical Logic and Historical Roots." In Stanley A. Renshon and Peter Suedfeld, eds., The Bush Doctrine: Psychology and Strategy in an Age of Terrorism. London: Routledge, 2007. Pp. 175-200. 

"International Sources of Interstate and Intrastate War." In Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, eds., Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World. Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2007. Pp. 17-38.

"Hegemonic Threats and Great Power Balancing in Europe, 1495-2000." Security Studies, 14, 1 (January-March 2005): 1-30. [with William R. Thompson] 

"Politically Motivated Opposition to War." International Studies Review, 6 (2004): 65-83.[with William F. Mabe, Jr.]

"Trading with the Enemy during Wartime." Security Studies, 13, 3 (Spring 2004): 1-47. [with Katherine Barbieri].

"What Do Great Powers Balance Against and When?" In T.V. Paul, James Wirtz, and Michel Fortmann, eds., Balance of Power Revisited: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004. Pp. 29-51.

"Introduction" to Systems, Stability, and Statecraft: Essays on The International History of Modern Europe, by Paul W. Schroeder, ed. by David Wetzel, Robert Jervis, and Jack S. Levy. New York: Palgrave, 2004. Pp. 1-19. [with David Wetzel and Robert Jervis]

"Crisis Mismanagement or Conflict of Interests? A Case Study of the Crimean War." In Zeev Maoz et al, eds., Multiple Paths to Knowledge in International Relations: Methodology in the Study of Conflict Management and Conflict Resolution. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 2004. Pp. 309-42. [with Joseph R. Gochal]

"The Power Transition Research Program: A Lakatosian Analysis." In Colin Elman and Miriam Fendius Elman, eds., Progress in International Relations Theory: Appraising the Field. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2003. Pp. 109-57. [with Johnathan M. DiCicco]

"Political Psychology and Foreign Policy." In David O. Sears, Leonie Huddy, and Robert Jervis, eds., Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology. New York: Oxford University Press, 2003. Pp. 253-84.

"The Trade Disruption Hypothesis and Liberal Economic Theory of Peace." In Gerald Schneider, Katherine Barbieri, and Nils Petter Gleditsch, eds., Globalisation and Armed Conflict. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2003. Pp. 277-98. [with Katherine Barbieri]

"Applications of Prospect Theory to Political Science." Synthese, 135, 2 (May 2003): 215-41. 

"Economic Interdependence, Opportunity Costs, and Peace." In Edward D. Mansfield, and Brian Pollins, eds., Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003. Pp. 127-47.

"Balances and Balancing: Concepts, Propositions and Research Design." In John A. Vasquez and Colin Elman, eds., Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 2003. Pp. 128-53.

"Qualitative Methods in International Relations." In Michael Brecher and Frank P. Harvey, eds., Millenial Reflections on International Studies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2002. Pp. 432-54.

"War and Peace." In Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations. London: Sage, 2002. Pp. 350-68.

"Daniel Kahneman: Judgment, Decision, and Rationality." PS: Political Science and Politics, 35, 2 (June 2002): 271-73.

"Demographic Change and the Sources of Interstate Conflict." In Myron Weiner and Sharon Stanton Russell, eds., Demography and National Security. New York: Berghahn Books, 2001. Pp. 62-105 [with Ronald R. Krebs]

"Democracy and Preventive War: Israel and the 1956 Sinai Campaign." Security Studies, 11, 2 (Winter 2001/2): 1-49. [with Joseph R. Gochal] 

"Does War Impede Trade? A Response to Anderton and Carter." Journal of Peace Research, 38, 5 (September 2001): 639-44. [with Katherine Barbieri] 

"Continuity and Change in the Evolution of War." In Zeev Maoz and Azar Gat, eds., War in a Changing World. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2001. Pp. 15-48. [with Thomas C. Walker and Martin S. Edwards]

"Explaining Events and Testing Theories: History, Political Science, and the Analysis of International Relations." In Colin Elman and Miriam Fendius Elman, eds., Bridges and Boundaries: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Study of International Relations. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2001. Pp. 39-83.

"The Implications of Framing and Loss Aversion for International Conflict." In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies II. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2000. Pp. 193-221.

"Reflections on the Scientific Study of War." In John A. Vasquez, ed., What Do We Know about War? Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000. Pp. 319-27.

Selected Articles and Chapters, 1990s

"Power Shifts and Problem Shifts: The Evolution of the Power Transition Research Program."  Journal of Conflict Resolution 42, 4 (December 1999): 675-704. [with Jonathan M. DiCicco]

"Sleeping With the Enemy: The Impact of War on Trade." Journal of Peace Research, 36, 4 (July 1999): 463-79. [with Katherine Barbieri] 

"The Rise and Decline of the Anglo-Dutch Rivalry, 1609-1689." In William R. Thompson, ed., Great Power Rivalries. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1999. Pp. 172-200.

"From Commercial Competition to Strategic Rivalry to War: The Evolution of the Anglo-Dutch Rivalry, 1609-1652." In Paul F. Diehl, ed., The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries. Urbana/ Champaign: University of Illinois Press, 1998. Pp. 29-63. [with Salvatore Ali]

"Misperception and the Use of Force: A Commentary on Ralph White's 'American Acts of Force.'" Peace and Conflict: Journal of Peace Psychology, 4, 2 (July 1998): 129-36.

"The Causes of War and the Conditions of Peace." Annual Review of Political Science, 1 (June 1998): 139-66.

"Contributions of Behavioral Decision Theory to Research in Political Science." Applied Psychology: An International Review, 47, 1 (January 1998): 29-44. [with Richard R. Lau]

"Too Important to Leave to the Other: History and Political Science in the Study of International Relations." International Security, 22, 1 (Summer 1997): 22-33. 

"Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations." International Studies Quarterly, 41, 1 (March 1997): 87-112. 

"Loss Aversion, Framing, and Bargaining: The Implications of Prospect Theory for International Conflict."International Political Science Review, 17, 2 (April 1996): 177-93.

"The Evolution of Militarized Interstate Disputes." In Stuart A. Bremer and Thomas R. Cusack, eds., The Process of War: Advancing the Scientific Study of War. Philadelphia: Gordon and Breach, 1996. Pp. 219-25.

"The Theoretical Foundations of Paul W. Schroeder's International System." International History Review, 16, 4 (November 1994): 715-44.

"The Democratic Peace Hypothesis: From Description to Explanation." Mershon International Studies Review, 38, 2 (October 1994): 352-54.

"Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping a Conceptual Minefield." International Organization, 48, 2 (Spring 1994): 279-312.

"Learning from Experience in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy." In Manus Midlarsky, John A. Vasquez, and Peter Gladkov, eds., From Rivalry to Cooperation: Soviet and American Perspectives on the Post-Cold War Era. New York: HarperCollins, 1994. Pp. 56-86.

"Alliance Formation, Domestic Political Economy, and Third World Security." Jerusalem Journal of International Relations, 14, 4 (December 1992): 19-40. [with Michael N. Barnett] 

"Diversionary Action by Authoritarian Regimes: Argentina in the Falklands/Malvinas Case." In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed. The Internationalization of Communal Strife. New York: Routledge, 1992. Pp. 118-146. [with Lily I. Vakili]

"An Introduction to Prospect Theory." Political Psychology, 13, 2 (June 1992): 171-186.

"Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems." Political Psychology, 13, 2 (June 1992): 283-310.

"The Role of Crisis Mismanagement in the Origins of World War I." In Alexander L. George, ed., Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management. Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1991. Pp. 62-102.

"Domestic Sources of Alliances and Alignments: The Case of Egypt, 1962-1973." International Organization, 45, 3 (Summer 1991): 369-395. [with Michael N. Barnett] 

"Mobilization and Inadvertence in the July Crisis." International Security, 16, 1 (Summer 1991): 189-194. [correspondence with Thomas J. Christensen and Marc Trachtenberg]

"Long Cycles, Hegemonic Transitions, and the Long Peace." In Charles W. Kegley, Jr. ed., The Long Postwar Peace. New York: HarperCollins, 1991. Pp. 147-176.

"Preferences, Constraints, and Choices in July 1914." International Security, 15, 3 (Winter 1990-91): 151-186. 

"Base Stealers versus Power Hitters: A Nation-State Level Analysis of the Frequency and Seriousness of War." In Charles S. Gochman and Alan Ned Sabrosky, eds., Prisoners of War? Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1990. Pp. 43-56. [with T. Clifton Morgan] 

"Big Wars, Little Wars, and Theory Construction." International Interactions, 16, 3 (1990): 215-224. 

Selected Articles and Chapters, 1980s

"The Causes of War: A Review of Theories and Evidence." In Philip E. Tetlock, Jo L. Husbands, Robert Jervis, Paul C. Stern, and Charles Tilly, eds. Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, vol. I. New York: Oxford University Press (for the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council), 1989. Pp. 209-333.

"The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique." In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies. London: Unwin-Hyman, 1989. Pp. 259-288.

"Quantitative Studies of Deterrence Success and Failure." In Paul C. Stern, Robert Axelrod, Robert Jervis, and Roy Radner, eds., Perspectives on Deterrence. New York: Oxford University Press (for the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council), 1989. Pp. 98-133.

"War and Perception." In Robert O. Matthews, Arthur G. Rubinoff, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., International Conflict and Crisis Management, 2nd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1989. Pp. 45-52.

"When Do Deterrent Threats Work?" British Journal of Political Science 18, 4 (October 1988): 485-512.

?"nalytic Problems in the Identification of Wars." International Interactions, 14, 2 (1988): 181-186. 

"Domestic Politics and War." Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 18, 4 (Spring 1988): 653-673.

"Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War." World Politics, 40, 1 (October 1987): 82-107.

"Organizational Routines and the Causes of War." International Studies Quarterly, 30, 2 (June 1986): 193-222. 

"The War-Weariness Hypothesis: An Empirical Test." American Journal of Political Science, 30, 1 (February 1986): 26-49. [with T. Clifton Morgan] 

"The Structure of the International System and the Frequency and Seriousness of War." In Margaret P. Karns, ed., Persistent Patterns and Emergent Structures in a Waning Century. New York: Praeger, 1986. Pp. 75-98. [with T. Clifton Morgan]

"Theories of General War." World Politics, 37, 3 (April 1985): 344-374.

"The Polarity of the System and International Stability: An Empirical Analysis."In Alan Ned Sabrosky, ed., Polarity and War: The Changing Structure of International Conflict. Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1985. Pp. 41-66.

"The Causes of the Iran-Iraq War." In James Brown and William P. Snyder, eds., The Regionalization of War. New Brunswick, NJ:  Transaction Books, 1985. Pp. 127-143. [with Michael Froelich]

"The Frequency and Seriousness of War: An Inverse Relationship?" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 28, 4 (December 1984): 731-749. [with T. Clifton Morgan]

"The Offensive/Defensive Balance of Military Technology: A Theoretical and Historical Analysis." International Studies Quarterly, 28, 2 (June 1984): 219-238.

"Size and Stability in the Modern Great Power System." International Interactions, 10, 3-4 (1984): 341-58.

"Misperception and the Causes of War: Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Problems." World Politics, 36, 1 (October 1983): 76-99.

"The Contagion of Great Power War Behavior, 1495-1975." American Journal of Political Science, 26, 3 (August 1982): 562-584. 

"Historical Trends in Great Power War, 1495-1975." International Studies Quarterly, 26, 2 (June 1982): 278-301.

"Alliance Formation and War Behavior: An Analysis of the Great Powers, 1495-1975." The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35, 4 (December 1981): 581-613.