Publications
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Special Issues and Symposia in Journals, Edited
Forthcoming and "Early View" Publications
Articles and Chapters by Decade: 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s
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The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, 3rd ed.
Oxford: Oxford University Press. [co-edited with Leonie Huddy, David O. Sears, and Jennifer Jerit]
The Outbreak of the
First World War: Structure, Politics, and Decision-Making.
Cambridge: UK: Cambridge University
Press, 2014.
[Edited with John A. Vasquez]
The Arc of War: Origins, Escalation and
Transformation. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2011.
[with William R. Thompson]
Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals.
Systems, Stability, and Statecraft: Essays
on The International History of Modern
Special Issues and Symposia in Journals, Edited
50th Anniversary Special Issue of Journal of Peace Research 51, 2 (March 2014). [edited with Halvard Buhaug] "Commentary on Preventive War." International Interactions 37, 1 (March 2011): 139-327. "Symposium" on Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Qualitative Methods, 4, 1 (Spring 2006): 34-48. "Decision Theory." A special issue of Synthese, 135, 2 (May 2003). [edited with Raymond Dacey]Forthcoming and "Early View" Publications
"Robert Jervis as a Social Science Methodologist." In Diane Labrosse, Stacie Goddard, and Richard H. Immerman, eds., The Jervis Effect. New York: Columbia University Press.
"Selected Articles and Chapters, 2020s
"Systemic Effects of Economic Interdependence and the Militarization Diplomacy: 1914 and Beyond." Journal of Strategic Studies, 46, 5 (2023), 894-920. [with William Mulligan]
"Introduction: Theoretical Foundations of Political Psychology." In Leone Huddy, David O. Sears, Jack S. Levy, and Jennifer Jerit, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology,
3rd ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 2023, pp. 1-17.
"Foreign Policy Decision Making: The Psychological Dimension." In Leone Huddy, David O. Sears, Jack S. Levy, and Jennifer Jerit, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology,
3rd ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 2023, pp. 349-391.
"Remembering Robert Jervis." In H-Diplo/ISSF Tribute to the Life, Scholarship, and Legacy of Robert Jervis: Part I. 4 February 2022. pp. 74-77.
Essay H-Diplo/ISSF Forum 28 on "The Importance of Paul Schroeder's Scholarship to the Fields of International Relations and Diplomatic History." 10 September 2021. pp. 20-29.
"Why 1914 and Not Before? A Comparative Study of the July Crisis and Its Precursors." Security Studies, 30, 2 (2021): 213-44. [with William Mulligan]
"Politics, Signaling, and Audience Costs: Britain and the 1863-64 Schleswig-Holstein Crisis." European Journal of International Security, 6, 3 (August 2021):338-57. [with Jayme Schlesinger]
"Introduction" to H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable XXII-45 on Matthew Kroenig, The Return of Great Power Rivalry. 14 June 2021. pp. 2-6.
Review of Steve Chan, Thucydides's Trap? Historical Interpretation, Logic of Inquiry, and the Future of Sino-American Relations (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2020). H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable 12-2, November 2020, pp. 14-21.
Review of John A. Vasquez, Contagion and War: Lessons from the First World War
(Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2018). ISSF Forum, January 24, 2020, No. 24, pp 10-17.
Selected Articles and Chapters, 2010s
"Opposition Politics and International Crises: A Formal Model." International Studies Quarterly 58, 4 (December 2014): 741-51. [with Patrick Shea and Terence K. Teo] "Introduction: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Causes of the First World War." [with John A. Vasquez]. In Levy and Vasquez, eds., The Outbreak of the First World War: Structure, Politics, and Decision-Making. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2014. pp. 3-29. "The Sources Preventive Logic in German Decision-making in 1914." In Levy and Vasquez, eds., The Outbreak of the First World War: Structure, Politics, and Decision-Making. Cambridge, UK:
"50 Years of Peace Research: An Introduction to the Journal of Peace Research Anniversary Special Issue" Journal of Peace Research 51, 2 (March 2014): 139:44. [with Halvard Buhaug and Henrik Urdal] "Preemptive and Preventive War." In Joel Krieger, ed., The Oxford Companion to International Relations. New York:
"The Decline of War" International Studies Review 15, 3 (September 2013): 411-19. [with William R. Thompson]. In "The Forum: The Decline of War," with Steven Pinker and Bradley A. Thayer, edited by Nils Petter Gleditsch, Pp. 396-419.
Review of Zara Steiner, The Triumph of the Dark: European International History, 1933-1939. H-Diplo XV, 4 (27 September 2013), 50-60.
"Introduction: Theoretical Foundations of Political Psychology." [with Leonie Huddy and David O. Sears].In Huddy, Sears, and Levy, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, 2nd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013. Pp. 1-19.
"Psychology and Foreign Policy Decision-Making." In Leonie Huddy, David O. Sears, and Jack S. Levy, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology,
2nd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013. Pp. 301-33.
"Has Violence Declined in World Politics?" A Discussion of Joshua S. Goldstein's Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide. Perspectives on Politics 11, 2 (2013): 566—77. [with Page Fortna and John Mearsheimer]
"Interstate War and Peace." In Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations II. London: Sage, 2013. Pp. 581-606.
"Coercive Threats, Audience Costs, and Case Studies." Security Studies 21, 3 (September 2012): 383-90.
"British Grand Strategy and the Rise of Germany, 1933-1936." [with Norrin M. Ripsman]. In Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, Norrin M. Ripsman, and Steven E. Lobell, eds., The Challenge of Grand Strategy: The Great Powers and the Broken Balance between the World Wars. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012. Pp. 171-92..
"Introduction" to H-Diplo/ISSF roundtable on Fixing the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligence, by Joshua Rovner. III, 17 (2012), 2-8 "The 'Paths to War' Concept." In John A. Vasquez, ed., What Do We Know about War? 2nd ed. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield, 2012. Pp. 281-90.
"Sea Powers, Continental Powers, and Balancing Theory." International Security, 36, 2 (Fall 2011): 190-202. [with William R. Thompson, Correspondence with David W. Blagden]
"Domestic Politics and Commercial Rivalry: Explaining the War of Jenkins' Ear, 1739-1748." European Journal of International Relations 17,2 (June 2011): 209-32. [with Patricia T. Young]
"The Initiation and Spread of the First World War: Interdependent Decisions." Foreign Policy Analysis, 7, 2 (April 2011): 183-88.
"Theories and Causes of War." In Christopher Coyne and Rachel L. Mathers, eds., The Handbook on the Political Economy of War. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2011. Pp. 13-33.
"Preventive War: Concept and Propositions." International Interactions 37, 1 (March 2011): 87-96.
"Balancing on Land and at Sea: Do States Ally Against the Leading Global Power?" International Security, 35, 1 (Summer 2010): 7-43. [with William R. Thompson]
Selected Articles and Publications, 2000s
"Conscious Action and Intelligence Failure." Political Science Quarterly, 124, 3 (Fall 2009): 461-88. [with Uri Bar-Joseph] "Debating British Decisionmaking toward Nazi Germany in the 1930s." International Security, 34, 1 (Summer 2009): 173-98. [with Norrin M. Ripsman, correspondence with Evan Resnick and Andrew Barros & Talbot Imlay]"Case Studies and Conflict Resolution." In Jacob Bercovitch, Victor Kremenyuk, and I. William Zartman, eds., Handbook of Conflict Resolution. London: Sage, 2009. Pp. 72-85.
"Wishful Thinking or Buying Time? The Logic of British Appeasement in the 1930s." International Security, 33, 2 (Fall 2008): 148-81. [with Norrin M. Ripsman]
"Counterfactuals and Case Studies." In Janet Box-Steffensmeier, Henry Brady, and David Collier, eds., in Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. New York: Oxford University Press, 2008. Pp. 627-44. "Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China." In Robert S. Ross and Zhu Feng, eds., China's Ascent: Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 2008. Pp. 11-33. Also published in China by Shanghai People's Press, 2008. "Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy: The Contributions of Alexander George." Political Psychology, 29, 4 (August 2008): 537-52.
"Preventive War and Democratic Politics." International Studies Quarterly, 52, 1 (March 2008): 1-24. (Presidential address, International Studies Association) "Case Studies: Types, Designs, and Logics of Inference." Conflict Management and Peace Science, 25, 1 (Spring 2008): 1-18. (Presidential address, Peace Science Society [International]) "Theory, Evidence, and Politics in the Evolution of Research Programs." In Richard Ned Lebow and Mark Lichbach, eds., Theory and Evidence in Comparative Politics and International Relations. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007. Pp. 177-97. "Causal Explanation, Necessary Conditions, and Case Studies." In Gary Goertz and Jack S. Levy, eds., Explaining War and Peace: Case Studies and Necessary Condition Counterfactuals.
"Time Horizons, Discounting, and Intertemporal Choice." Journal of Conflict Resolution, 51, 2 (April 2007): 199-226. [with Philip Streich]
"The Preventive War that Never Happened: Britain, France, and the Rise of Germany in the 1930s." Security Studies, 16, 1 (January-March 2007): 32-67. [with Norrin M. Ripsman]
"Qualitative Methods and Cross-Method Dialogue in Political Science." Comparative Political Studies, 40, 2 (February 2007): 196-214. "Preventive War and the Bush Doctrine: Theoretical Logic and Historical Roots." In Stanley A. Renshon and Peter Suedfeld, eds., The Bush Doctrine: Psychology and Strategy in an Age of Terrorism. London: Routledge, 2007. Pp. 175-200. "International Sources of Interstate and Intrastate War." In Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, eds., Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World. Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2007. Pp. 17-38. "Hegemonic Threats and Great Power Balancing in Europe, 1495-2000." Security Studies, 14, 1 (January-March 2005): 1-30. [with William R. Thompson]
"Politically
Motivated Opposition to War." International
Studies
Review, 6 (2004): 65-83.[with
William F.
Mabe, Jr.]
"Trading
with the Enemy during Wartime." Security
Studies, 13, 3 (Spring 2004):
1-47. [with
Katherine Barbieri].
"What
Do Great Powers Balance Against and When?" In T.V. Paul,
James Wirtz, and
Michel Fortmann, eds., Balance of Power
Revisited: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century. Stanford,
CA: "Crisis Mismanagement or Conflict of Interests? A Case Study of the Crimean War." In Zeev Maoz et al, eds., Multiple Paths to Knowledge in International Relations: Methodology in the Study of Conflict Management and Conflict Resolution. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 2004. Pp. 309-42. [with Joseph R. Gochal] "The Power Transition Research Program: A Lakatosian Analysis." In Colin Elman and Miriam Fendius Elman, eds., Progress in International Relations Theory: Appraising the Field. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2003. Pp. 109-57. [with Johnathan M. DiCicco] "Political Psychology and Foreign Policy." In David O. Sears, Leonie Huddy, and Robert Jervis, eds., Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology. New York: Oxford University Press, 2003. Pp. 253-84. "The Trade Disruption Hypothesis and Liberal Economic Theory of Peace." In Gerald Schneider, Katherine Barbieri, and Nils Petter Gleditsch, eds., Globalisation and Armed Conflict. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2003. Pp. 277-98. [with Katherine Barbieri]
"Applications of Prospect Theory to Political Science." Synthese, 135, 2 (May 2003): 215-41. "Economic Interdependence, Opportunity Costs, and Peace." In Edward D. Mansfield, and Brian Pollins, eds., Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003. Pp. 127-47. "Balances and Balancing: Concepts, Propositions and Research Design." In John A. Vasquez and Colin Elman, eds., Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 2003. Pp. 128-53. "Qualitative Methods in International Relations." In Michael Brecher and Frank P. Harvey, eds., Millenial Reflections on International Studies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2002. Pp. 432-54. "War and Peace." In Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations. London: Sage, 2002. Pp. 350-68. "Daniel Kahneman: Judgment, Decision, and Rationality." PS: Political Science and Politics, 35, 2 (June 2002): 271-73. "Demographic Change and the Sources of Interstate Conflict." In Myron Weiner and Sharon Stanton Russell, eds., Demography and National Security. New York: Berghahn Books, 2001. Pp. 62-105 [with Ronald R. Krebs]
"Democracy and Preventive War: Israel and the 1956 Sinai Campaign." Security Studies, 11, 2 (Winter 2001/2): 1-49. [with Joseph R. Gochal] "Does War Impede Trade? A Response to Anderton and Carter." Journal of Peace Research, 38, 5 (September 2001): 639-44. [with Katherine Barbieri] "Continuity and Change in the Evolution of War." In Zeev Maoz and Azar Gat, eds., War in a Changing World. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2001. Pp. 15-48. [with Thomas C. Walker and Martin S. Edwards] "Explaining Events and Testing Theories: History, Political Science, and the Analysis of International Relations." In Colin Elman and Miriam Fendius Elman, eds., Bridges and Boundaries: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Study of International Relations. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2001. Pp. 39-83. "The Implications of Framing and Loss Aversion for International Conflict." In
Selected Articles and Chapters, 1990s
"Power Shifts and Problem Shifts: The Evolution of the Power Transition Research Program." Journal of Conflict Resolution 42, 4 (December 1999): 675-704. [with Jonathan M. DiCicco] "Sleeping With the Enemy: The Impact of War on Trade." Journal of Peace Research, 36, 4 (July 1999): 463-79. [with Katherine Barbieri] "The Rise and Decline of the Anglo-Dutch Rivalry, 1609-1689." In William R. Thompson, ed., Great Power Rivalries. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1999. Pp. 172-200. "From Commercial Competition to Strategic Rivalry to War: The Evolution of the Anglo-Dutch Rivalry, 1609-1652." In Paul F. Diehl, ed., The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries. Urbana/ Champaign: University of Illinois Press, 1998. Pp. 29-63. [with Salvatore Ali]
"Misperception
and the Use of Force: A Commentary on Ralph White's 'American Acts of
Force.'" Peace and Conflict:
Journal
of Peace Psychology, 4, 2 (July 1998): 129-36.
"The Causes of War and the Conditions of Peace." Annual Review of Political Science, 1 (June 1998): 139-66.
"The Causes of War and the Conditions of Peace." Annual Review of Political Science, 1 (June 1998): 139-66.
"Contributions of Behavioral Decision Theory to Research in Political Science." Applied Psychology: An International Review, 47, 1 (January 1998): 29-44. [with Richard R. Lau]
"Too Important to Leave to the Other: History and Political Science in the Study of International Relations." International Security, 22, 1 (Summer 1997): 22-33.
"Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations." International Studies Quarterly, 41, 1 (March 1997): 87-112.
"Loss Aversion, Framing, and Bargaining: The Implications of Prospect Theory for International Conflict."International Political Science Review, 17, 2 (April 1996): 177-93.
"The Evolution of Militarized Interstate Disputes." In Stuart A. Bremer and Thomas R. Cusack, eds., The Process of War: Advancing the Scientific Study of War. Philadelphia: Gordon and Breach, 1996. Pp. 219-25.
"The Theoretical Foundations of Paul W. Schroeder's International System." International History Review, 16, 4 (November 1994): 715-44.
"The Democratic Peace Hypothesis: From Description to Explanation." Mershon International Studies Review, 38, 2 (October 1994): 352-54. "Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping a Conceptual Minefield." International Organization, 48, 2 (Spring 1994): 279-312. "Learning from Experience in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy." In Manus Midlarsky, John A. Vasquez, and Peter Gladkov, eds., From Rivalry to Cooperation: Soviet and American Perspectives on the Post-Cold War Era. New York: HarperCollins, 1994. Pp. 56-86. "Alliance Formation, Domestic Political Economy, and Third World Security." Jerusalem Journal of International Relations, 14, 4 (December 1992): 19-40. [with Michael N. Barnett] "Diversionary Action by Authoritarian Regimes: Argentina in the Falklands/Malvinas Case." In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed. The Internationalization of Communal Strife. New York: Routledge, 1992. Pp. 118-146. [with Lily I. Vakili] "An Introduction to Prospect Theory." Political Psychology, 13, 2 (June 1992): 171-186. "Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems." Political Psychology, 13, 2 (June 1992): 283-310. "The Role of Crisis Mismanagement in the Origins of World War I." In Alexander L. George, ed., Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management. Boulder, Col.: Westview, 1991. Pp. 62-102. "Domestic Sources of Alliances and Alignments: The Case of Egypt, 1962-1973." International Organization, 45, 3 (Summer 1991): 369-395. [with Michael N. Barnett] "Mobilization and Inadvertence in the July Crisis." International Security, 16, 1 (Summer 1991): 189-194. [correspondence with Thomas J. Christensen and Marc Trachtenberg] "Long Cycles, Hegemonic Transitions, and the Long Peace." In Charles W. Kegley, Jr. ed., The Long Postwar Peace. New York: HarperCollins, 1991. Pp. 147-176. "Preferences, Constraints, and Choices in July 1914." International Security, 15, 3 (Winter 1990-91): 151-186. "Base Stealers versus Power Hitters: A Nation-State Level Analysis of the Frequency and Seriousness of War." In Charles S. Gochman and Alan Ned Sabrosky, eds., Prisoners of War? Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1990. Pp. 43-56. [with T. Clifton Morgan] "Big Wars, Little Wars, and Theory Construction." International Interactions, 16, 3 (1990): 215-224.
Selected Articles and Chapters, 1980s
"The Causes of War: A Review of Theories and Evidence." In Philip E. Tetlock, Jo L. Husbands, Robert Jervis, Paul C. Stern, and Charles Tilly, eds. Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, vol. I. New York: Oxford University Press (for the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council), 1989. Pp. 209-333. "The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique." In Manus I. Midlarsky, ed., Handbook of War Studies. London: Unwin-Hyman, 1989. Pp. 259-288. "Quantitative Studies of Deterrence Success and Failure." In Paul C. Stern, Robert Axelrod, Robert Jervis, and Roy Radner, eds., Perspectives on Deterrence. New York: